Friday, July 20, 2007

Cyclogenesis? Here? In July??

This morning's forecast is a bit strange. Here's an excerpt:
Unseasonably strong westerly flow across the Pacific will drive yet another stronger system into the area Sat night and sun. This system will also have a long moisture fetch of tropical origins...possibly remnants from excessive-Typhoon Man-Yi but this is difficult to ascertain. This may explain the GOES precipitable waters of nearly 3 inches out near 150 west. The GFS shows cyclogenesis to occur as the system moves to 130w with a surface low deepening 997mb before curving NE into Vancouver Island. The GFS hangs the front up over western Washington through Sun night which could result in a prolonged period of moderate rain across the area. An extended period of rainfall may push rivers up quickly but it is hard to imagine a flooding scenario this time of year. Regardless...the latest mm5gfs gives 5+ inches of rain over the Olympics which would easily push many rivers to flood stage. In addition...very fast rises on all streams/rivers could catch people off guard and extreme caution should be exercised this weekend. Will need to consider a spacial statement for later today and possible flood watches as well. Continue to monitor forecasts.

Here's a technical and well illustrated page about cyclogenesis. And here is the quick version from Cyclogenesis is an umbrella term for several different processes, all of which result in the development of some sort of cyclone.

So it looks like the PNW is going to get it's share of extreme weather after all. Sounds a bit like a very unseasonable Pineapple Express. We'll post an update when the front rolls through.

A good place to learn more about the PNW climate and it's coming changes is at the website for the Climate Impacts Group out of the University of Washington. They also have links to learn about climate research in other parts of the country as well.

Tomorrow we head south (2 whole counties) to learn more about Dexter cattle. Look for more pics and commentary soon! And don't forget to check out the announcement in the upper right corner of the blog if you are in the area.

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